Forecast Discussion


FXUS65 KFGZ 242125
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
225 PM MST Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday or Thursday. Activity
will slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another active day is ongoing, most storms have been
fleeting and run out as the outflow passes. The most active area is
currently in northern Gila County, but a well-organized outflow may
generate new activity in eastern and central Yavapai County before
the day is done.

Primary threats remain heavy rain and small hail, lack of shear and
notable storm motion should limit larger hail potential.

Similar conditions persist Tuesday and into Wednesday. before the
mid-levels dry toward the end of the week. This will likely limit
storms to our eastern zones Thursday through Saturday. This will be
short-lived, moisture will creep back westward late in the weekend
and early next week, as the ridge quickly reestablishes a favorable
position.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 24/18Z through Tuesday 25/18Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z, SCT to
NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR.
Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/18Z through Thursday 27/18Z...Outside of
thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions. 19Z-03Z each day, SCT
to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR.
Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. Storm
activity shifts primarily east of the I-17 corridor by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue. Winds will mainly be driven by outflows.
Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning,
and gusty, erratic winds. Min RHs ranging from 20 to 40 percent,
with good overnight recoveries.

Thursday through Saturday...Most of the central and western zones
become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue
for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect
southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

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