Forecast Discussion


FXUS65 KTWC 242124
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
224 PM MST Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Ample moisture will bring daily chances for thunderstorms to the
area through this week. Locally heavy rain will be likely with
any thunderstorm that develops, along with an isolated chance for
strong wind gusts. Temperatures will heat up a few degrees by the
middle of the week as high pressure builds overhead. Looking into
July, the pattern is favoring active weather as additional
moisture will likely move into southeastern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Under a persistent anomalously rich moisture field, convective
debris continues to impact precipitation chances across much of
southeastern Arizona. As clouds were very gradually clearing,
adequate surface heating has allowed for isolated convection to
develop early this afternoon. Additionally isolated convection was
ongoing in the Whites With precipitable water values exceeding
the 99th percentile for this time of year on NAEFS climatological
guidance, strong convection will likely produce heavy rainfall
rates. Very isolated strong outflow winds can't be ruled out
either, however boundary layer moisture looks high enough with
relatively lower DCAPE to preclude any major concerns with outflow
winds.

Looking at the rest of this afternoon into this evening, recent
CAM runs have toned down the coverage of convection, likely in
part due to the cloud cover which has kept surface temperatures
down. That isn't to say impacts on a very isolated level isn't
possible, but coverage at this moment beyond an isolated level
looks unlikely. Additional isolated convection will be possible
overnight as subtle shortwaves roll through the moisture stream
aloft.

The upper level high will become more centered over southeastern
Arizona in the coming days. Though any remnant cloud cover each
day and the moisture in place may keep temperature trends muted,
highs should increase a bit going into mid-week. By the end of the
week, the upper high should flatten somewhat, with flow that
brings a bit weaker moisture into the area. Even then, daily
afternoon-evening precipitation chances remain. In the longer
range, ensembles show good support for rich moisture returning to
southeastern Arizona into the Independence Day timeframe. This is
highlighted by the CPC's 8-14 day outlook with likely above normal
precipitation through the first week in July.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.

Isolated TSRA through 25/03Z with isolated -SHRA possible
overnight. Brief MVFR conditions possible with this activity.
Winds generally remain below 10 kts through the forecast period,
though any thunderstorm may produce brief gusty outflow winds.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side
into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate
locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph
each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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